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The smartest guy in the room thinks Hillary Clinton will win Florida

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With four days before The. Most. Important. Election. Ever. comes to its conclusion, it’s difficult to separate the signal from the noise when it comes to polling and predictions. Right now, everyone is as much an expert about politics as they are in theories about how “Game of Thrones” will end. So many people are nervous about the outcome of the election, they will hang on to a single shred of data — “But Hispanic NPA early voting is up 28…

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Joe Henderson: Assault on polling begins in ShameFest 2016

in 2017/Top Headlines by

As we approach the home stretch of ShameFest 2016 — otherwise known as the election — we should take a moment to ponder one of the great moments the last time the nation chose a president. It was election night 2012 and Fox News, accurately as it turned out, declared President Barack Obama had won Ohio and, thus, a second term as commander in chief. But GOP operative Karl Rove didn’t agree. He argued live on camera that his own…

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Marian Johnson: Donald Trump needs to get out white voters; Hillary Clinton, independent voters

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The close presidential race in Florida offers two very different paths to victory for the candidates, with Donald Trump‘s campaign needing to bring out white voters and Hillary Clinton needing to appeal to independent voters, according to Florida Chamber of Commerce polling guru Marian Johnson. Johnson laid out the latest findings of the chamber’s political polling Thursday night at the Future of Florida Forum in Orlando, showing Democrat Clinton with a two-point lead overall in a Sept. 16 survey, a…

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Marco Rubio may be ready to endorse in U.S. Senate race, defends his own pace

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Florida’s outgoing Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio suggested Monday he may be ready to endorse the Republican he wants to follow him into the office. “I’ll have something to say about that in the next couple of days,” Rubio said Monday after meeting in Orlando with Orange County Mayor Teresa Jacobs to discuss Central Florida’s heroin crisis. Rubio also insisted his recent flurry of activity on Florida issues is not a change in his activity level, but a change in media coverage…

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New poll has Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton up by more than 20 points in Florida

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A new poll conducted by Florida Atlantic University gives commanding leads to Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton headed to Florida’s presidential primary on Tuesday. The survey, conducted Tuesday through Friday by FAU’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative, gives Trump 44 percent, followed by a tie between U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas with 21 percent each, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich 9 percent. For the Democrats, Clinton has 59 percent and U.S. Sen.…

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Why the Quinnipiac poll spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Bernie Sanders

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As we noted in both salt shaker tests on the two recent Florida polls (Quinnipiac and AIF polls), the method used by Quinnipiac likely favors an outsider insurgent. Why is that? Quinnipiac asked randomly dialed Floridians to indicate first whether or not they were a registered voter, then which party they belonged to and then – this is the crux – whether or not they intended to vote. We know, with unquestioned certainty, that respondents exaggerate their propensity to vote.…

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Salt Shaker Test: AIF poll says Donald Trump leads, but …

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It’s not every day that we get two similar polls from reputable pollsters. Yesterday was such a day! Early Thursday morning, we got one from Quinnipiac and then a few hours later, Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) released a similar instrument with similar — but different — findings. What’s different? Notably, in the Q-Pac poll, Donald Trump leads by an eye-popping 16 points over Marco Rubio, while in the AIF poll, Trump still leads, but by a more manageable 7…

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