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Applying salt shaker test to Florida Southern College poll

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Can a poll have flawed methodologies and still be relatively “accurate?” Of course it can, much in the same way a dart can be close to its intended target even if the player throwing the dart does not use good form. It might be that way with the newly released Florida Southern College poll, which shows, like many others, Trump leading and Rubio in second place in the Republican Party Presidential Preference Primary (PPP). But, the poll itself and the…

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Quinnipiac poll: First-time voters help boost Donald Trump’s lead

in 2017/Top Headlines by

With hours to go before the first votes are cast, a new poll shows Donald Trump’s lead widening, due in large part to support from likely first-time caucus goers. Trump holds a 7 point lead over Ted Cruz, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Monday morning. Trump is at 31 percent, followed by Cruz at 24 percent. Marco Rubio holds his third place position with 17 percent, followed by Ben Carson at 8 percent. Trump leads Cruz 40 percent…

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Gallup: Jeb Bush’s image among Republicans declines

in 2017/Top Headlines by

Jeb Bush’s image among Republicans has worsened, according to a new Gallup poll. Forty-five percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they had an unfavorable opinion of the former Florida governor. The results reflect voters opinions between Dec. 18 and Jan. 5. That support, the poll found, is significantly lower than his position in July, when 54 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they had a favorable opinion of Bush. Frank Newport of gallup.com reported that Bush’s -1 net…

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New polling from Associated Industries shows Donald Trump strong but “race still young”

in 2017/Top Headlines by

New polling shows Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump sweeping primaries in Florida and early-vote state New Hampshire, and tying with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in South Carolina. The pollster, though, warns the “race is still young” and “there is still much room for movement for virtually all of the candidates.” More to the point, other focus-group surveys suggest Trump “may have hit his ceiling.” The polling of “likely” Republican voters was done this month by Associated Industries of Florida, one of the state’s premier business lobbies, for its…

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Today on Context Florida: Veterans & disability, lying pollsters and ex-offenders returning to the workforce

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Today on Context Florida: It’s Veterans Day Wednesday, and Tom O’Hara is more excited than usual. In researching this column, he learned that as a Vietnam veteran O’Hara might be eligible to collect VA disability benefits due to his diabetes – even though I’m sure a tedious year at Phu Cat Air Force Base has nothing to do with my blood-sugar levels today. It’s a great time to be a veteran, O’Hara says. Jac VerSteeg believes polling accuracy might be worse…

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Bob Sparks: Polls have recently missed the mark; how about the GOP presidential field?

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Political opinion polls can be useful, but they can also be dangerous in a figurative sense. Those thinking the election is over because a poll says so can be in for the shock of their lives. Polls can get it wrong in a big way. We have some recent examples. Going into Tuesday night’s statewide elections in Kentucky, Republican Matt Bevin was trailing Democrat Jack Conway by 5 points in the race for governor, according to the final Bluegrass Poll…

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Today on Context Florida: #BlackLivesMatter, FAMU coup and dangerous polling

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Today on Context Florida: Julie Delegal writes that some whites’ approach to the movement presumes a zero-sum game: If one group is “awarded” national attention on any issue, the reasoning goes, then other groups by contrast, necessarily must lose something. But #BlackLivesMatter doesn’t mean that only black lives matter. It means, rather, that we can no longer pretend that institutions in our country, like our criminal justice system, are race-neutral. It means that we can’t turn a blind eye to disparate treatment…

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