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Applying salt shaker test to Florida Southern College poll

in Statewide/Top Headlines by

Can a poll have flawed methodologies and still be relatively “accurate?” Of course it can, much in the same way a dart can be close to its intended target even if the player throwing the dart does not use good form. It might be that way with the newly released Florida Southern College poll, which shows, like many others, Trump leading and Rubio in second place in the Republican Party Presidential Preference Primary (PPP). But, the poll itself and the…

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Donald Trump continues to lead in polls from Iowa and nationally

in 2017/Top Headlines by

An online Reuters/Ipso poll of 278 self-identified Republicans taken after last Thursday night’s GOP presidential debate continues to show New York City real estate magnate Donald Trump dominating the GOP presidential field nationally. The survey has Trump at 24 percent, double the support of the next closest Republican, Jeb Bush, who is at 12 percent. That’s down from 17 percent from a Reuters/Ipso poll done before the Cleveland debates. Four candidates are tied for third with 8 percent support, including Marco Rubio.…

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Mason-Dixon solar poll: Salt Shaker Test

in Statewide/Top Headlines by

Mason-Dixon recently released a new statewide poll testing the two pending solar amendments currently making their way through the process in Florida. Despite the fact that both dealt with a similar subject, solar power, it was a tale of two initiatives: one very passable and the other with seemingly no path to victory. The initiative backed by the solar industry (titled, “Limits or Prevents Barriers to Local Solar Electricity Supply) saw only 30 percent of respondents saying they would vote…

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Mitch Perry Report for 3.27.15 — Could Bob Menendez fate affect Loretta Lynch as AG?

in The Bay and the 'Burg/Top Headlines by

Loretta Lynch, President Obama’s choice to replace Eric Holder as attorney general, was in Tampa yesterday for the swearing-in ceremony of Lee Bentley, the new U.S. Attorney for the Middle District of Florida. Lynch is the U.S. attorney in Brooklyn, and would become the first black female AG in U.S. history if confirmed. Obama nominated her way back in November, but she still awaits a vote in the full Senate. Lots of Republicans oppose her nomination because they’re upset over…

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More thoughts on PPP poll: The biggest threat to Democrats is not angry voters but apathy within party base

in Statewide by

More thoughts on the Public Policy Poll: Our polling is continuing to indicate that the biggest threat to Democrats this year is not angry voters going over to the Republicans, but apathy within the party base. The Florida Senate race is a good example of this. We find that only 8% of people who voted for Barack Obama in Florida are planning to cross over and support Marco Rubio this year. That is actually smaller than the 11% of John…

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The problem with the Rasmussen poll showing Marco Rubio ahead of Charlie Crist

in Statewide by

Excerpted from Nate Silver of 538.com: As many people have noticed, Rasmussen’s polls this year have tended to be more favorable to Republican candidates and causes than those of most other polling outfits. This does not necessarily imply bias. It could result from a whole number of things, ranging from the fact that they’re applying a likely voter screen when most other pollsters aren’t, to some sort of methodological quirk, to the fact that they’re just doggone right. But the…

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