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Ryan Tyson

My electoral college prediction: Hillary Clinton 304, Donald Trump 234

in Peter/Top Headlines by

Were I a betting man— and Alan Suskey can tell you I am not — this would be my prediction for how the electoral college vote turns out. Hillary Clinton 304, Donald Trump 234. Here is a quick rationale: Nevada should have gone for Trump. In fact, I am surprised Sheldon Adelson and the boys aren’t making it happen. But Jon Ralston, who is basically the Marc Caputo and the Adam Smith of the Silver State, says Trump is dead there…

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The smartest guy in the room thinks Hillary Clinton will win Florida

in Peter by

With four days before The. Most. Important. Election. Ever. comes to its conclusion, it’s difficult to separate the signal from the noise when it comes to polling and predictions. Right now, everyone is as much an expert about politics as they are in theories about how “Game of Thrones” will end. So many people are nervous about the outcome of the election, they will hang on to a single shred of data — “But Hispanic NPA early voting is up 28…

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In which Ryan Tyson deep-dives into the vote-by-mail numbers

in Statewide by

The race to Election Day has entered its final sprint. More than 1.2 million vote-by-mail ballots have already been returned to elections officials across Florida. Early voting kicked off Monday in dozens of Florida counties. It’s too early to know what those ballots hold, but that doesn’t mean the ballots can’t offer some insight into the 2016 election. In a briefing memo over the weekend, Ryan Tyson, the vice president of political operations at Associated Industries of Florida, outlined some…

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Is Oscar Braynon running the best Senate political operation in years?

in Peter by

Democratic uber consultant (and frequent Uber customer) Steve Schale contends in a must-read, table-setting blog post about which Florida Senate races are worth watching that “Oscar Braynon is running the best Senate political operation I’ve seen in years.” Really? Technically, Schale is absolutely right. Braynon is running the best political shop in years because, when compared to previous Democratic efforts, O.B. looks like a black James Carville. Beyond Schale, there are other super-smart people in Tallahassee who think very highly of the Florida Democrats’ Senate political…

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Solar amendment supporters shine, raise $2.8M in 2 days

in Statewide/Top Headlines by

The committee backing the solar power amendment on the 2016 ballot raised nearly $2.8 million over two days to start the month after posting no contributions since June. Consumers for Smart Solar has raised more than $18.8 million since it began operations in July 2015, mainly through massive support from the utility industry. As of Aug. 5, the committee has about $3.1 million of that money on hand. Between July 30 and Aug. 5, Smart Solar took in eight contributions,…

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6 p.m. update: Pollster predicts Florida GOP turnout could exceed 50%

in 2017/Top Headlines by

UPDATED Florida political pollster Ryan Tyson is tracking turnout in 25 counties in media markets across the state, representing 44 percent of  registered Republicans (excluding Orange, Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties) He reported that as of 6 p.m. Tuesday, the counties are now tracking on a 49 percent turnout level with an hour to go (two hours in the Panhandle). Tyson said earlier turnout could exceed more than 50 percent, “and possibly even to 53-54 percent.” An assortment of county turnout…

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