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Why the Quinnipiac poll spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Bernie Sanders

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As we noted in both salt shaker tests on the two recent Florida polls (Quinnipiac and AIF polls), the method used by Quinnipiac likely favors an outsider insurgent. Why is that? Quinnipiac asked randomly dialed Floridians to indicate first whether or not they were a registered voter, then which party they belonged to and then – this is the crux – whether or not they intended to vote. We know, with unquestioned certainty, that respondents exaggerate their propensity to vote.…

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Salt Shaker Test: Evaluation Donald Trump’s large lead in latest Q-PAC poll

in 2017/Top Headlines by

Quinnipiac’s latest poll is a good one, but with a slight methodology problem that could favor Donald Trump. What did the poll find? It found Trump nearly lapping what is left of the field and is 16-points ahead of the second closest candidate, Marco Rubio. If accurate (and we know the race will change between now and March 15); this could spell serious trouble for anyone hoping to challenge the front-runner. Let’s break out the salt shaker and evaluate their…

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