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Salt Shaker Test on the new Monmouth poll: Donald Trump’s lead back down to earth

in 2017/Top Headlines by

A pattern is forming here. According to the last rounds of polls, Donald Trump’s lead in the upcoming GOP primary appears to be larger in polls conducted via auto-dialers (a.k.a. IVR technology) than those conducted via live operators. We saw late last month where the Quinnipiac numbers showed Trump up by a very strong 20 points over Marco Rubio while the AIF poll had it much closer at 7 points. The difference? Q-pac was an IVR poll while AIF’s poll was conducted using live…

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Bob Sparks: Polls have recently missed the mark; how about the GOP presidential field?

in Statewide/Top Headlines by

Political opinion polls can be useful, but they can also be dangerous in a figurative sense. Those thinking the election is over because a poll says so can be in for the shock of their lives. Polls can get it wrong in a big way. We have some recent examples. Going into Tuesday night’s statewide elections in Kentucky, Republican Matt Bevin was trailing Democrat Jack Conway by 5 points in the race for governor, according to the final Bluegrass Poll…

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Salt Shaker Test applied to latest Florida GOP PPP poll

in 2017/Top Headlines by

It was trumpeted (pun intended) as an “Exclusive Poll” for Bay News 9, and it showed Trump so far in the lead we just had to scratch our heads. Anytime you have an outlier poll with unusual findings it is vital that you turn a skeptical eye to the results – and so we did. SurveyUSA conducted the poll, and they used what our lawyers will advise us to call, “an interesting methodology.” Although the Bay News 9 release says…

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The problem with the Rasmussen poll showing Marco Rubio ahead of Charlie Crist

in Statewide by

Excerpted from Nate Silver of As many people have noticed, Rasmussen’s polls this year have tended to be more favorable to Republican candidates and causes than those of most other polling outfits. This does not necessarily imply bias. It could result from a whole number of things, ranging from the fact that they’re applying a likely voter screen when most other pollsters aren’t, to some sort of methodological quirk, to the fact that they’re just doggone right. But the…

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Charlie Crist HAS thrown the knockout punch

in Peter/Statewide by

My argument (first said here on Florida News) for the last two weeks has been that Charlie Crist, by launching an early media blitz and a statewide bus tour, announcing Martinez’s endorsement, etc., has already won the race to be the Republican nominee for governor. A new poll bears out my theory that Crist has already thrown a knockout punch. “In a Republican primary, Attorney General Charlie Crist wins the nomination for Governor, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for…

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