SETTING THE TONE
On the twelfth anniversary of the attacks on 9/11, the Atlantic Wire republished a letter written by Frank Culbertson, the “only American not on Earth on Sept. 11.” Profoundly moving.
Florida could see a budget surplus for the coming fiscal year to the tune of about $845 million. Member project feeding frenzy? Probably not, considering Gov. Scott has promised to return much of the surplus to taxpayers.
Surplus or not, executive agencies will once again undergo budget cutting exercises.
Attorney General Pam Bondi requested, and then apologized for requesting, that an execution be rescheduled to permit her to attend something that had long been on her schedule. Lesson of the day: Cabinet members should make sure their scheduling teams communicate with each other about good and bad dates for things like this.
An independent review commissioned by the Indiana Legislature found “it was necessary” for former Florida Education Commissioner Tony Bennett to tweak Indiana’s school grading formula while serving as that state’s top education official, via Kathleen McGrory of the Miami Herald
The report showed no wrong-doing by Bennett or his staff — and certainly nothing that suggested favoritism or inconsistent application of grading criteria to specific schools. “If the original accusation is what’s remembered, people will also have to remember the ultimate resolution to that accusation,” Bennett said. “And that is that we didn’t do what people said we did.”
Via Dan Tracy of the Orlando Sentinel, harsh words flew at the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority board meeting, two days after board members including new member Marco Pena were accused of violating Florida’s Government in the Sunshine Law.
This is far from the last we’ll hear of this.
Senate President Don Gaetz sent all members a series of documents relating to Common Core standards, with the goal of separating fact from fiction when answering constituent inquiries.
Rep. Neil Combee’s tweet implying a possible complicit White House role behind the sarin gas attack in Syria is “malarkey” according to Rep. Alan Williams — but Combee defended the tweet saying he’s just asking important questions as the country continues the discourse on military intervention. This, from Ryan Little of the Lakeland Ledger.
That said, a majority of voters oppose air strikes on Syria and want Congress to reject Obama’s request for approval.
While another poll finds that Obama’s standing on foreign policy fares the same or worse than GW Bush’s, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee doesn’t believe that it will effect elections in 2104. “It does not complicate the cycle at all; 2014 is not going to be a referendum on Syria,” said Steve Israel,
Rep. Matt Gaetz filed a bill (HB 4005) to make big fireworks legal in Florida, arguing that the current regulatory structure doesn’t make anyone safer but rather sends folks to spend their money in other states.
Saint Petersblog publisher Peter Schorsch penned a column placing Chris Clark’s “revolving door” in context, suggesting that perhaps reporters are envious of the on-and-off-again staffer’s income; only to receive a swift rebuttal from Florence Snyder, who defended Herald reporter Mary Ellen Klas for her bent in breaking the story.
In unrelated news, a report from the Congressional Management Foundation found that “inadequate pay is the main reason congressional staff flee their jobs” … despite about 80% feeling happy with the work itself.
Rule changes are coming to Florida’s state gambling regulations as regulators have decided state laws are “too murky.”
There’s already a lot of talk about Charlie Crist’s now-completed book, “The Party’s Over: How the Extreme Right Hijacked the GOP and I Became a Democrat.” The book is dubbed as a “no-holds-barred” memoir… but another book may be coming soon, too, from Crist’s former crony Jim Greer… who, at the moment, is held-behind-bars, but will be released right around when his largely untold story could matter at the polls.
Will Greer write that book? In an exclusive prison house interview with Greer, Steve Bosquet talked with the former GOP chairman about his plans. “I have a lot of knowledge of a lot of things,” Greer said. “Maybe someday I’ll tell them and maybe someday I won’t.”
Marco Rubio will also release a new book following the 2014 midterm elections — it is about the future of the Republican Party.
Jeb Bush didn’t win many new friends over presenting the 2013 Liberty Medal to Hillary Clinton, and certainly none with the Tea Party. Via Alex Leary of the Tampa Bay Times Bush laughed off criticism, saying, “Hillary and I come from different political parties, and we disagree about lots of things, but we agree on the wisdom of the American people – especially those in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina,” referring to the states he and Clinton would compete in if they enter the 2016 presidential race.
From our Congressional delegation, Bill Young continues his fight to fund the F-35 program, and Mario Diaz Balart says that immigration reform will be delayed.
Federal hiring in 2012 was the lowest in six years.
LOTS ON SCOTT
Gov. Rick Scott began a statewide tour, dubbed “It’s Your Money”, where citizens are asked for their ideas on state tax dollar spending.
Meanwhile, PolitiFact marked Scott’s statement Mostly True that the majority of Florida businesses are exempt from business taxes.
And to Aaron Deslatte of the Orlando Sentinel, Scott is no longer a long-shot for reelection. Instead, he writes, there are growing signs that Scott will be a contender in 2014, in large part due to Florida’s economic recovery.
Regardless, via Steve Bousquet of the Tampa Bay Times, the Democrats knocked Scott saying he is ” using campaign-style gimmickry to prop up his low poll numbers with voters.”
These sentiments are shared by Dan Gelber, in a column for Context Florida titled “Scott is trying to dupe voters about his supposed accomplishments.”
Scott met with Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shad Khan at the Governor’s Mansion over the weekend to discuss “economic development opportunities.”
From Peter Schorsch: “There’s a saying “don’t taunt the alligator until after you’ve crossed the creek.” Well if the ‘creek’ is the 2014 gubernatorial election and the ‘alligator’ is Florida voters… well, Gov. Scott is doing a piss-poor job of pacifying.” Apparently, he got the message, and cancelled the $25k/head gator hunt fundraiser that prompted Schorsch’s piece.
Elections officials expressed skepticism about Scott’s voter purge, according to Chris Graham of the Daytona Beach News-Journal. Secretary of State Ken Detzner announced Wednesday he will hold five meetings with county election officials in October on what he’s calling a “Project Integrity Tour.”
CANDIDATE FILE
Alex Sink was dubbed the Woman of Florida political mystery by Marc Caputo, who interviewed the ever -uncertain former CFO and gubernatorial candidate about whether she seek to will take on Rick Scott once again.
Allison Tant was dubbed the “loser of the week in Florida politics”, via Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times, over her open warring with Rep. Darryl Rouson and the myriad other things that seem not to be going smoothly over at the FDP.
Schorsch posted on why it would be “really awkward if the Dems dump Rouson” (hint: his initials are C.C.)
Via George Bennett of the Palm Beach Post, Charlie Crist talked strategy about the 2014 gubernatorial race with top Obama aides including David Axelrod, Jim Messina and Valerie Jarrett. Crist said their role has been “just giving some general advice. … If we do this, it’s a big race in a big place. So you want to have the very best advice that you can get.”
Tony Fabrizio, Rick Scott’s pollster, jabbed at Charlie to the Women’s Republican Club of Dade. He insinuated that Charlie may not win the primary against Nan Rich considering “outside intervention” in the race.
In HD 6, the field got narrower this week when candidates Waylon Thompson and Brian Rust dropped out of the race.
Winter Park Republican David Dwyer filed papers Friday with the state Division of Elections to become the third GOP candidate seeking to unseat Castor Dentel in House District 30. The other Republicans in the Central Florida race are Bob Cortes and Scott Sturgill, both of Seminole County.
Meanwhile, Cape Coral Republican James Lloyd Roach filed papers to run against Eagle in District 77.
Rep. Debbie Mayfield has drawn a 2014 Republican challenger for her Indian River County-centered Florida House seat, via Jonathan Mattise of the TCPalm. Joshua Lawrence Fields, a 31-year-old pharmacist, has filed paperwork to run in District 54, which contains all of Indian River and a slice of northern St. Lucie County.
Via Orlando Politics, Last to Enter, First to Qualify? Republican Jennifer Sullivan says she’s collected the number of petitions necessary to qualify for the Florida House District 31 race next year.
Marc Reichelderfer and Frank Terraferma represents the fullest picture yet of what was happening on the periphery of the visible portion of redistricting, via Brandon Larrabee of the News Service of Florida.
Via Matt Dixon of the Jacksonville Times Union, Bill Gunter’s new life as candidate for state office is very different from his past. Decades ago, his life included “LSD, reds, valium and speed.” He was also into stealing alcohol – his nickname was the “beer boogeyman” – and was violent to the point his parents feared him. Gunter openly talks about his past in a 1989 piece that was republished online in 2007.
THE WEEK IN POLITICAL MONEY
Florida Trend, in a piece published on Monday, highlighted Florida’s millionaire lawmakers, how they earned their bucks, and their change in net worth from 2011. In all, 49 lawmakers are worth greater than $1 million, representing about one out of every three in office.
Taking the data provided by Florida Trend, I’ve calculated the following: Among members of the Senate, 40% are millionaires. In the House, this is true for 28%. While Republicans make up 64% of the House, they represent 70% of House millionaires. Likewise, in the Senate, Republicans represent 65% of the body but comprise 80% of Senate millionaires.
But here’s the more interesting stuff: changes in net worth. Of the 45 millionaire legislators who reported a change in net worth between 2011 and 2012, 33 of them (73%) saw their wealth go up. Of the 12 millionaire legislators who lost net worth between 2011 and 2012, four are Democrats and eight are Republican. This means, proportionally, 31% percent of millionaire Democrats lost some dough this year, compared to 25% percent of millionaire Republicans.
Via Aaron Deslatte of theOrlando Sentinel, Sen. President Don Gaetz wants the Legislature to make good on a never-enforced requirement that lobbying firms be subjected to random audits. Gaetz said Monday he had asked the Senate’s general counsel to work with the House to determine how to kick-start the audits.
Via Marc Caputo of the Miami Herald, Bernie Friedman, whose income as a Becker & Poliakoff lobbyist hinges in no small part on a Republican-led Legislature, is hosting a fundraiser for his friend and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Nan Rich.
Southern Strategy Group hosted a fundraiser at Splitsville in Orlando for eight candidates, joined by members of about a dozen associations, including Disney, the Florida Medical Association, the Florida Dental Association, FP&L, Florida Transportation Builders Association, Brian Jogerst, Mosaic, Pennington PA, and Poole McKinley.
OBAMACARE DIGEST
The Kaiser Family Foundation released a new study concluding that individual premiums under the Affordable Care Act will be cheaper than other calculations have predicted, The Hill reports.
Via The Washington Post, while the Affordable Care Act is projected to extend health care coverage to an additional 25 million Americans in the next decade, another 31 million will remain uninsured. Their ranks will include undocumented persons and low-income residents of 21 states that have rejected Medicaid expansion. A thousand free clinics across the country “are redoubling efforts to help those bypassed by the law,” including undocumented workers who are ineligible to purchase coverage on the ACA’s exchanges.
MORE FROM KAREN’S WONK SHELF
Two pieces on math and politics…
First, math is the clear winner when Americans are asked which subject has been the most valuable to them in their lives. According to a Gallup survey released Wednesday, math earns the vote of more than one-third of respondents (34%) followed by English/literature at 21 percent. Conservatives and moderates both see math as the most valuable subject (38% and 35%, respectively), while liberals are about as likely to see math and English as equally valuable (26% for math, 24% for English).
Second, highly partisan people who are good at math interpret numbers as they want to see them, not as they really are. This, according to an experiment by researchers from Yale, Ohio State, Cornell, and Oregon. They found that people who are otherwise good at math are far more likely to lose their reasoning abilities when calculating solutions that run contrary to their political beliefs.
I argued that the Florida Prepaid Dental Health program should be continued past its scheduled sunset in 2014, as actual progress is being made on access to dental care for kids on Medicaid. And argued that Alzheimer’s research will return far more than it costs to fund, considering the disease is the #1 culprit to Medicaid and Medicare budgets.
STAY TUNED
The Public Affairs Council’s State and Local Government Relations Conference will be held Sept. 25-27 in Washington. The conference will cover topics ranging from legislative tracking tools to forming coalitions and creating crisis communications plans.
Speakers from RSLC, the DGA, Target, UnitedHealthcare, General Mills, MasterCard, the American Beverage Association, Eli Lilly, Verizon, CH2M Hill and elsewhere are on the schedule. More information here. Full line-up is here.
Facing Florida with Mike Vasalinda: Marion Hammer and Screven Watson
Florida This Week on Tampa Bay’s WEDU: Barry Edwards, Adam Goodman, Brendan McLaughlin, Angie Drobnic Holan.
Political Connections on Orlando’s 13 News: Orlando mayor Buddy Dyer.
Political Connections on Tampa Bay’s BayNews 9: Candidates running in the special election for House District 36.
The Usual Suspects on Tallahassee’s WCTV: Bill Cotterell.
PERSONNEL NOTES
Former LG Jennifer Carroll was hired, alongside former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, by GSDI, an arms dealer in Palm Beach.
Via Nate Monroe of the Pensacola News Journal, Colleen Castille will stay on as city administrator for Pensacola, following a short time as interim administrator.
Jessica Cary is the new Director of Communications at the Department of Corrections. Cary replaces Ann Howard.
Sen. Gaetz has promoted Cindy Kynoch to be staff director of the Senate Appropriations Committee replacing Mike Hansen, effective Oct. 21. JoAnne Leznoff continues to hold down the fort in the House as the long-time staff director of the House Appropriations Committee.
Kareem Copeland, who has covered the Green Bay Packers and college football in Mississippi, is joining The Associated Press in its Tallahassee bureau to cover Florida State University sports and state government, according to the wire service.
Florida TaxWatch welcomed Dan McCarthy as the Executive Director of the TaxWatch Center for Smart Justice. In this position, McCarthy will lead the efforts of Florida TaxWatch to improve the Florida criminal and juvenile justice systems.
You’re reading it here first: Joe Clements could well be Florida’s Nate Silver, a political data guru with the creativity to make it matter. While you may not know him by name, if you work in Florida campaigns you’ve probably been touched by his data – or certainly will be. Joe runs Decision Media Works, a data visualization group that asks (and receives) interesting questions and maps out answers in a way that few others seek to do.
Maverick PAC announced Thursday that Jeb Bush Jr. will join Slater Bayliss to co-chair the Maverick PAC Florida effort. MavPAC Florida is part of a national organization that is engaging young professional Republicans in the political process. Today, over 20 attorneys, community and business leaders across Florida were also named as Regional Chairs in support of Florida’s efforts.
The Governor’s appointments office was busy this week. Appointed were Anna Dooley and Mike Bauer and Cari Roth (reappointed) to the Environmental Regulation Commission; Christi L. Underwood to the Ninth Judicial Circuit Court; Kelly Jo McKibben to the Eighteenth Judicial Circuit Court; Gary K. Hunter, Jr. to the First District Court of Appeal Judicial Nominating Commission; Dr. Steven Scott to the University of Florida Board of Trustees; and Robert Atkins and Hans Wilson to the Boating Advisory Council.
NEW LOBBYING REGISTRATIONS
Amanda Prater: Youth Villages
Brian Ballard, Carol Bracey, Sylvester Lukis, Ballard Partners: City of Marathon
Hayden Dempsey, Greenberg Traurig: Kids Wish Network
Brian Ballard, Carol Bracy, Matthew Forest, Ballard Partners: Data Recognition Corporation; Sterling Facility Services
Brian Ballard, Brad Burleson, Ballard Partners: RAF Industries, Inc
Crystal Rountree, Omari Todd: Teach for America, Inc.
David Ramba, Ramba Consulting: BYDSSE Gaming, LLC; Florida Concrete & Products Association; Gary Rutledge, Rutledge Ecenia: Florida Bar, Family Law Section
Derek Buchanan: Department of Agriculture & Consumer Services
Elisa Weber: Department of Business & Professional Regulation
Erin Choy, National Strategies LLC: GovDelivery
George Oscar Anderson, Paul Bradshaw, David Browning, Chris Dudley, Towson Fraser, Paul Mitchell, Jonathan Setzer, Southern Strategy Group: I-4 Development Partners
Jay Neal: Florida Association for Insurance Reform
Karen Zeiler: Florida Hospital Association
Mark Delegal, Holland & Knight: City of West Palm Beach
Nick Iarossi, Chris Schoonover, Capital City Consulting: Dosal Tobacco Corporation
Paul Mitchell, Jim Smith Southern Strategy Group: Behavior Health of the Palm Beaches, Inc.
Stephen Hill, A. Stephen Hill & Associates: Guidance Clinic of the Middle Keys, Inc.
Traci Small, National Strategies: Fire Eye
Tom Arnold, Paul Bradshaw, Chris Dudley, James McFaddin, Paul Mitchell, Lindsey Perkins, Southern Strategy Group: Identity Theft Guard Solution d/b/a I.D. Experts
TWEET OF THE WEEK
@SoStrategyFL: Rep. Jason Brodeur goes bowling at Disney with the SSG shark. Shark lost. Shark lost bad. pic.twitter.com/GdXjNnyxtC
Brought to you by Karen Cyphers, PhD. Karen is president of The Cyphers Group, LLC. She directs data analysis, political consulting, and puic policy research.
