Steve Schale, in a Thursday blog post, previewed this weekend’s Jefferson Jackson Dinner and took a “hard look at the evolving nature of the Democratic coalition” in a state where “two hyper competitive Presidentials sandwiched the most expensive Governor’s race in history” and in doing so, changed the make-up of Florida’s electorate.
Schale looks at a range of voter registration data beginning at the close of the 2006 general election, at which point the state more accurately began reporting Hispanics, through the end of the 2012 general election. He finds that the number of “active” voters has increased by about 1.5 million, of which 61 percent are either black and/or Hispanic. Of the new black and Hispanic voters, 65 percent registered Democratic while only six percent registered Republican, with the remaining having no party or minor party affiliation. About 100,000 fewer whites are registered as Democrats today than in 2006, while about 240,000 non-Hispanic whites have joined the Republican party, and 300,000 were added to the ranks of no or minor parties.
Interestingly, Schale finds that while Democrats increased registration by about 250,000, almost all of these numbers were within counties that have lost vote share in comparison to the state. In growing counties, Republican registration gains were greater. He uses Broward County as an example, where the Democrat registration advantage has increased by 100,000 since 2006, but where the county’s share of actual voters dropped by about one percentage point. Further, North Florida registration is starting to line up more with its politics: Schale finds that nearly one-third of GOP growth came from North Florida.
Schale’s analysis goes on to speculate about the electoral impacts of these (and other) shifting political demographics in terms of Florida’s 2014 gubernatorial race and more. Read his full column, titled “The New Face of Florida Democratic Coalition” here.
