As we noted in both salt shaker tests on the two recent Florida polls (Quinnipiac and AIF polls), the method used by Quinnipiac likely favors an outsider insurgent.
Why is that?
Quinnipiac asked randomly dialed Floridians to indicate first whether or not they were a registered voter, then which party they belonged to and then – this is the crux – whether or not they intended to vote.
We know, with unquestioned certainty, that respondents exaggerate their propensity to vote. So who is likely to do that? Those nonvoters who are enthusiastic about an outsider candidate
Donald Trump is that outsider candidate – and so is Bernie Sanders.
As we saw in the Q-PAC poll, they oversampled younger voters, and when we compared the Q-PAC poll to the AIF poll (which DID use actual GOP voters who had an actual history of voting in primaries), we found Trump’s lead tighten significantly.
So … if Q-PAC oversampled younger non-voters and that is where the Bern is coming from, what does it say that Q-PAC has Bernie 26 points down?
It means the Bern is over.
Yes, I am calling it.
